Stockgeneration Report - 2/9/2000

It's prudent to operate on the basis that SG has a finite life. That means that, as time progresses, the risk of putting money into it increases. It seems to me that SG has a potential life of several years. Based on my interpretation of the status of the game, my subjective assessment of the current "risk factor" is now 10% -- see Risk Meter. See also SG.

8/9/99:

The value of our SG portfolio, including cash withdrawn, has now surpassed $150,000 and continues to grow at an accelerating pace. Because there is now sufficient evidence that SG works pretty well, there will no longer be any regular updates.

Meanwhile, SG seems to be making continuing improvements to their website and operation, which is an indication to me that they're in business for the long haul.

If any special events make me think that special action is required by participants, a special report will be added here.

7/23/99:

After thirty-two weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $131,585. That's up $125,585 or 2,093% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has increased slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,795,000 (up from $5,612,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

7/16/99:

After thirty-one weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $120,963. That's up $114,963 or 1,916% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has increased slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,612,000 (up from $5,534,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

7/9/99:

After thirty weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $110,135. That's up $104,135 or 1,735% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has increased slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,534,000 $ (up from $5,427,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

7/2/99:

After twenty-nine weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $101,610. That's up $95,610 or 1,593% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has increased slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,427,000 (up from $5,116,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

6/25/99:

After twenty-eight weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $93,119. That's up $87,119 or 1,451% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has increased slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,116,000 (up from $5,080,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

On June 23, SG announced that: "If, after 5 (five) working days have elapsed SG has still not effected your withdrawal, we will pay you an additional 1% of the withdrawn amount for each subsequent day of delay until payment has been effected."

The referral system has also been improved -- click here to read the details.

6/18/99:

After twenty-seven weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $85,344. That's up $79,344 or 1,322% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has dropped slightly. The 7-day average is now about $5,080,000 (down from $5,120,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61%.

6/11/99:

After twenty-six weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $77,141. That's up $71,141 or 1,185% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $5,120,000 (up from $4,910,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61% (down from 62% last week).

6/4/99:

After twenty-five weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $70,510. That's up $64,510 or 1,075% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $4,910,000 (up from $4,550,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 62%.

5/28/99:

After twenty-four weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $66,156. That's up $60,156 or 1,002% from the initial $6,000. (A thousand percent in less than six months!)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $4,550,000 (up from $4,220,000 last week). I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 62%.

5/21/99:

After twenty-three weeks our SG portfolio (plus about $28,000 cash withdrawn) stands at $61,683. That's up $55,683 or 928% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $4,220,000 (up from $3,860,000 last week). Particularly now that the future prices are published in advance, I have no reason to believe that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 62% (up from 61% last week).

5/14/99:

After twenty-two weeks our SG portfolio (plus about $28,000 cash withdrawn) stands at $58,259. That's up $52,259 or 870% from the initial $6,000.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $3,860,000 (up from $3,770,000 last week).

Paranoid speculation: During this week SG announced an additional 25% bonus on new deposits, on top of the 30% bonus. So now there's effectively a 55% bonus on new deposits. Is SG this desperate to attract new money?

Two months ago when share #11 was split, there was almost certainly a cash crunch of sales exceeding purchases. The split was intended to remedy the situation. SG also started reporting huge purchases of #11 -- another measure aimed at improving cash flow? Then SG implemented a temporary 30% bonus on new cash. Then they made that bonus permanent. Then they increased the referral-fee percentages for some. Now they've added an additional bonus and started publishing #11 prices in advance. Are all these really desperate attempts to handle a cash crunch?

Fortunately, they have rule 13 as a second-last resort, should other measures fail. Their last resort is to drop the price of #11, possibly to zero. Because of these last two resorts, they may be able to keep the game going for a long time.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42% (up from 36% last week), and #11 by 61% (up from 54% last week).

5/7/99:

After twenty-one weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $54,357. That's up $48,357 or 805% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.) We have now withdrawn a total of about $18,500. We have remaining $35,700 worth of share #11.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $3,770,000 (up from $3,700,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 36%, and #11 by 54% (up from 53% last week).

4/30/99:

After twenty weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $49,985. That's up $43,985 or 733% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.) We have now withdrawn a total of about $18,500. We have remaining $31,400 worth of share #11.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now about $3,700,000 (up from $3,650,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 36%, and #11 by 53%.

4/23/99:

After nineteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $46,910. That's up $40,910 or 681% from the initial $6,000. During the past week we earned $6,200. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.) During the week we sold some shares and are in the process of withdrawing about $9,200.

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now just over $3,650,000 (up from $3,600,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 36%, and #11 by 53% (up from 50% last week).

4/16/99:

After eighteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $40,704. That's up $37,704 or 578% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now just over $3,600,000 (up from $2,800,000 two weeks ago). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 36%, and #11 by 50% (down from 51% last week).

4/9/99:

On April 5, SG announced:
>All players who pay into their accounts during
>the first two weeks after the game restarts
>will receive a 30% bonus to purchase shares.

On April 6, SG announced:
>We are pleased to announce that as of GMT – 2
>hrs we are back up and running.

That means that until April 19, any players paying money into their accounts receive an immediate 30% gain.

After seventeen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $37,504. That's up $31,504 or 525% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.) The reason for the modest increase this week is that because of SG installing new software and an apparent hacking problem there was only one price increase for share #11, compared to the usual two.

Because of the problems there were several days when no transaction volumes were reported. There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 36% (down from 42% last week), and #11 by 51% (down from 60% last week). For #10 and #11 one price change was skipped this week.

4/2/99:

After sixteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $35,807. That's up $29,807 or 496% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.) We currently have $26,598 in share #11, growing at about 60% per month. (Toward the end of the month we plan to withdraw about two-thirds of our monthly earnings.)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now just over $2,800,000 (up from $2,700,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 60% (down from 61% last week -- fluctuations probably due to rounding).

3/26/99:

After fifteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $31,854. That's up $25,854 or 430% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has moved up further. The 7-day average is now over $2,700,000 (up from $1,500,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 61% (down from 67% last week -- fluctuations probably due to rounding).

3/19/99:

After fourteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $29,875. That's up $23,875 or 397% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has again spurted. The 7-day average is now over $1,500,000 (up from $681,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9 or #10.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 67% (up from 65% last week.)

During the past week, we sold all our other shares and bought #11. As a result of the switch, our weekly increase was again pretty small (a pathetic 6%!). However, a 397% gain over 14 weeks still ain't that bad!

3/12/99:

After thirteen weeks our SG portfolio (plus cash withdrawn) stands at $29,509. That's up $23,509 or 391% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The reported net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has spurted during the past week. The 7-day average (as of 3/11/99) is just over $669,000 (up from $514,500 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9 or #10. I would be very nervous about holding #11 at this time. See discussions on the Stockgeneration forum.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 65% (down from 68% last week.)

During the past week, we sold all our #11, withdrew our original capital outlay plus 50%, and bought #10 with the balance. We also sold all our #9 in order to buy #10.

As a result of all these transactions, our weekly increase was pretty small (a pathetic 9%!). However, a 391% gain over three months ain't all that bad either!

3/6/99:

After twelve weeks our SG portfolio stands at $28,957. That's up $22,957 or 382% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

We sold all our #11 shares after heavy sales were reported on 3/4/99. Some of the cash proceeds will be withdrawn and some will be used to buy share #10.

Over the past 30 days (as of 3/5/99) share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 68% (all unchanged from last week.)

On March 4th, sales of share #11 hit $177,671.76. It appeared that some heavy selling had started.

I suspect that SG does not always provide accurate statistics in "Yesterday's Transactions." During the past three months there have been several days when either only a few transactions for #10 and #11 were shown (5-15, compared to the usual 70-90), or they just repeated the previous day's numbers.

On 3/3/99, they showed an unusually low number of sales transactions for #11, but including several large sales, with a total in the "usual" range. I suspect that actual sales were considerably greater than the numbers provided. From the large sales I got the impression that one or more "big players" had started liquidating #11, each selling in the region of 5-7 shares a day.

On 3/4/99, SG again showed an unusually low number of sales transactions for #11, but including several large sales, with a total about three times the "usual" range. I again suspect actual sales were much more than the numbers shown.

If the numbers are to some extent fake, it does not make them useless, because these are the numbers players see and to some extent base their decisions on.

Obviously, I don't know the future prices of #11. They could continue going up for many months. The price could drop slightly on Tuesday... or it could drop to zero. SG could invoke rule #13: "...In the interests of the holders of shares belonging to companies 10 and 11, and of preserving the dynamics of the game, the owners of SG have the right to decide against reducing the SELL price of these companies in favor of treating the amount of money spent on the purchase of shares in Companies 10 and 11 as if it had been spent on the purchase of shares in Company 9." (My interpretation of this rule is that it gives SG the option to effectively convert your #11 shares into #9 shares, such that your large #11 profits suddenly become much lower #9 profits. In other words, players don't lose their money; they just lose most of their paper profits.)

The crucial issue: What is the risk of remaining in #11? For me personally, the risk at this point is too high. Of course, now that I've sold, I want the price to drop to $1 or $0.10, so I can cash in on the next run up! In any case, by selling I've "locked in" some hefty profits.

On 3/5/99, StockGeneration's "Yesterday's Transactions" for share #11 look completely fake to me. For three months now, purchases added up to about $200,000 every day. After the huge sales of 3/4/99, you would expect that the next day there would be fewer and smaller purchases. Instead, a 50% jump to over $300,000 is shown!

You would also expect that on 3/5/99 there would be more and larger sales because of all the players "spooked" by the previous day's heavy sales. Instead, only 19 (compared to the usual 70-90) sales transactions were shown! And the total sales for #11 were shown as $42,866.07! For the first 12 hours of 3/5/99, no sales transactions whatever were shown!

My own sales of nearly $23,000 took place at about 1:31 AM GMT on 3/5/99. But in my "Transaction History" they're dated 3/4/99 with the correct times. So my personal sales of nearly $23,000 never showed up in the sales transactions! Previously, when I'd checked, I always found my personal transactions in "Yesterday's Transactions." SG's numbers for the last three days have established in my mind the certainty that they sometimes provide fake numbers.

I believe that the numbers produced by SG indicate their determination to keep #11 going up for the foreseeable future. It's quite conceivable to me that the #11 numbers of the last three days constitute a "fabricated (but crude) test" to demonstrate to players that one day's unusually heavy sales don't necessarily cause a panic; in fact, they cause record purchases the following day, and no sales for the first 12 hours of the following day!

It also means, at least in some respects, that it's prudent to not trust the SG people. Does this mean that I think the game should be abandoned? Not at all! I think the SG people are most resourceful in "keeping the game going" and the probability is high that a great deal of money can still be made by playing the game. However, I also think that it's a very risky game indeed and needs to be played very cautiously.

Should those who've sold #11, buy back in again? Given SG's apparent determination to keep #11 going up at all costs, this may be the potentially most profitable strategy for the very brave! Personally, for the time being I'll settle for taking out the cash I put in plus at least 50%, and let the rest "ride" on #9 and #10.

The way I see it, in order to keep #9-11 prices going up, they need more buyers than sellers at the ever-higher prices. New potential buyers need to have confidence that prices are likely to continue up. So they need to see numbers that instill confidence. So SG provides such numbers.

The fake numbers, in my opinion, actually makes SG a better game for those with buy-and-hold strategies for #9-11. SG can "cook the books" to avoid panics. After some heavy selling, they can stage some impressive numbers to demonstrate that no panic was warranted, so new buyers will continue buying at higher prices.

Is this a case of "dishonesty" being the best policy? I think so. The overall effect of fake numbers is that the run ups in #9-11 will tend to last longer and go further (and we make more money). So I think it's in our best interest to support SG's apparent policy of providing fake numbers!

On 3/6/99, SG again reported purchases for #11 of about $300,000 and sales of about $40,000. They reported 43 sales transactions, compared to the usual 70-90.

It now seems to me that, whatever the actual purchases and sales, SG's policy is to report daily numbers roughly as follows: #9 - purchases: $300,000; sales: $70,000 #10 - purchases: $200,000; sales: $55,000 #11 - purchases: $300,000; sales: $40,000.

It seems to me that up to 3/2/99, SG's policy was: #11 - purchases: $200,000; sales: $55,000.

2/26/99:

After eleven weeks our SG portfolio stands at $26,531. That's up $20,531 or 342% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has declined during the past week. The 7-day average is about $521,000 (down from $531,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 68% (all unchanged from last week.)

During this week another person we sponsored reported that he successfully withdrew money. It generally seems to take 5-7 days for SG to make payments. (I haven't come across any instances of SG not eventually making their payments.)

2/19/99:

After ten weeks our SG portfolio stands at $23,626. That's up $17,626 or 293% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has continued edging up during the past week, and barely surpassed the levels reached at the end of last year. The 7-day average is over $531,000 (up from $525,000 last week). There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 68% (all unchanged from last week.)

2/12/99:

After nine weeks our SG portfolio stands at $21,310. That's up $15,310 or 255% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has continued edging up during the past week, and is getting close to the levels reached at the end of last year. The 7-day average is over $525,000. There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 68%. (#11's rate of increase is the same as last week.)

2/5/99:

After eight weeks our SG portfolio stands at $19,129. That's up $13,129 or 218% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

During our second month we've devoted about 15 hours to Stockgeneration and earned about $7,000. That means we earned over $400 an hour.

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has been edging up during the past week, but hasn't reached the levels at the end of last year. The 7-day average is just below $520,000. There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 68%. (#11's rate of increase has gone up further.)

1/29/99:

After seven weeks our portfolio stands at $16,949. That's up $10,949 or 182% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The average net cash inflow for shares #9-11 is essentially unchanged from last week. There's still no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 63%. (#11's rate of increase has gone up further.)

1/22/99:

After six weeks our portfolio stands at $15,071. That's up $9,071 or 151% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The average net cash inflow for shares #9-11 is essentially unchanged from last week. There's still no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 59%. (#11's rate of increase has been edging up.)

1/15/99:

After five weeks our portfolio stands at $13,589. That's up $7,589 or 126% from the initial $6,000. (Some of the earnings have come from referral fees.)

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 has recently on occasion dropped below $500,000 per day. The 7-day average is just above $500,000. There's no indication to me that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.

Over the past 30 days share #9 has increased by 12%, #10 by 42%, and #11 by 56%.

1/8/99:

In the first month our starting portfolio has grown from $6,000 to $12,277 -- a whopping 104% increase!

An important significance of this result is that we've devoted about 40 hours to Stockgeneration so far. That means we effectively earned $150 per hour. And as the capital amount increases, our earnings per hour will tend to also increase. It may not be very long before our earnings per hour are in the thousands!

Some of the earnings below are from referral fees. You may do better or worse, depending on how much you wager, which shares you buy, how they perform, and how much you earn in referral fees.

Original Amount Wagered:    $6,000
Portfolio on 12/18/98:      $8,001
Appreciation:               $2,001
Percentage Gain:            33%

Portfolio on 12/25/98:      $8,720
Appreciation:               $2,720
Percentage Gain:            45% 

Portfolio on 1/4/99:        $11,275
Appreciation:               $5,275
Percentage Gain:            87% 

Portfolio on 1/8/99:        $12,277
Appreciation:               $6,277
Percentage Gain:            104% 

Percentage Gains for Shares During Past 30 Days:
#9 - 11.5%; #10 - 42.3%; #11 - 53.2%.

The net cash inflow for shares #9-11 continues above $500,000 per day. No indication yet that it's time to get out of #9, #10, or #11.